Light at the End of the Tunnel

As we dwindle through the last month of contests, Sen. Obama is getting closer and closer to securing the nomination. Here's a quick look at the numbers:

Contests – Obama 30, Clinton 15 (Guam pending)

Total Delegates – Obama 1747, Clinton 1608

Pledged delegates Obama needs for a majority – 134

Total delegates Obama needs for the nomination – 277

Ad Watch: Obama

Sen. Obama makes his "closing argument" to the voters of North Carolina and Indiana in two new 2-minute ads (Note: the ads are vitrually the same with minor tweaks making each ad specific to Indiana and North Carolina).

"Minute" (airing in Indiana)


"Minute" (airing in North Carolina)

Ad Watch: Clinton

Another gas tax holiday ad from the Clinton campaign. While every economist has acknowledged the gas tax holiday as negligent, irresponsible, and ineffective, perhaps Sen. Clinton's focus groups reveal the political merits to the flagrant pandering of voters.

Guam Results

With 11 of Guam's 21 precincts reporting, Sen. Obama has a 6 point margin over Sen. Clinton, 54% - 46%.

Get updates by the minute HERE.

'A Classic Military-Political Dilemma'

The Israeli government has seen great success in reducing suicide bombings over the last year. The drop off in bombings allows the Israeli leadership the necessary domestic political breathing room to engage in serious diplomatic talks with Palestinian leadership. However, the Israeli government finds itself in a military- political pickle.

The New York Times' Isabel Kershner illustrates the diplomatic catch-22 facing Israeli leadership:

It is a classic military-political dilemma. The progress in stopping suicide bombers, the vast majority of whom cross into Israel from the West Bank, has brought enough quiet for Israel to resume peace talks with the Palestinian leadership there.

But the current calm is fragile, and to maintain it Israeli security officials say they must continue their nightly arrests and sometimes deadly raids in the heart of the West Bank — tactics at odds with a peace effort that envisions a separate Palestinian state, an eventual Israeli withdrawal from much of the West Bank and, in the meantime, a gradual transfer of authority to the Palestinian police.

“The price of staying out” of the West Bank, said one senior Israeli military official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of military restrictions, “might be one that we don’t want to pay.”

...

Israel also started building the West Bank separation barrier in 2002, describing it as an answer to the suicide bombers. Made up mostly of fences and some sections of wall, the barrier is now about two-thirds complete. Security officials say it has proved effective, but they do not rely on it alone.

Israel’s prime minister, Ehud Olmert, has managed to straddle the seeming contradictions between the peace process and the military’s continued campaign in the West Bank largely by putting off the matter until a later date.

...

In theory, Palestinian security forces would assume the responsibility of preventing such attacks, and a test of that approach will come this summer when a 600-member battalion of the Palestinian National Security Force completes an American-financed training program in Jordan. The Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, has stated that the recruits will be deployed in the northern West Bank city of Jenin, once considered the capital of the suicide bombers. Additional Palestinian forces are already due to start deploying in the city in order to prepare the ground.

But leading Israeli security figures, past and present, seriously doubt that the Palestinian police will have the capacity or the will to fight terrorism in the foreseeable future.

While it is unlikely that Palestinian security forces will provide Israeli officials with enough comfort to bring raids in the West Bank to a halt, there are signs that the Palestinian security forces are taking the necessary first steps:

A 500-strong force made up of Palestinian national security forces and presidential guards has begun deploying in the West Bank city of Jenin for a law-and-order campaign.

...

The deployment is meant to show the government is laying the ground for statehood. Another 150 men already in Jenin will also take part in a campaign.

Sunday Talking Heads Preview

This Week with George Stephanopoulos
--Sen. Hillary Clinton

Meet The Press with Tim Russert
--Sen. Barack Obama

Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace
--DNC Chairman Howard Dean
--Former DNC Chairman Joe Andrew, Obama Backer
--Terry McAullife, Clinton Campaign Chair
--Carly Fiorrina, McCain Advisor

Face the Nation with Bob Schieffer
--Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C.
--Sen. Evan Bayh, D- Ind., Clinton Backer
--Mayor Doug Wilder, D-Richmond, Obama Backer

A Day In The Life ~ Saturday, May 3rd

BARACK OBAMA
-- 12:45 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Indianapolis, IN
-- 3:45 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Noblesville, IN
-- 5:30 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Kempton, IN
-- Attends event with voters, Lafayette, IN

HILLARY CLINTON
-- 8:30 am ET: Attends event with voters, Cary, NC
-- 10:00 am ET: Attends event with voters, Wake Forest, NC
-- 1:30 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Gastonia, NC
-- 3:30 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Mooresville, NC
-- 9:00 pm ET: Attends event with voters and John Mellencamp, Indianapolis, IN

BILL CLINTON
-- 8:30 am ET: Attends event with voters, Angola, IN
-- 10:15 am ET: Attends event with voters, Kendallville, IN
-- 12:15 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Columbia City, IN
-- 1:45 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Warsaw, IN
-- 3:30 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Plymouth, IN
-- 5:30 pm ET: Attends event with voters, La Porte, IN
-- 9:00 pm ET: Attends event with voters and John Mellencamp, Indianapolis, IN

Picture of the Week

(Source: Al Jazeera News)

Rice seeds make splashes in a flooded field in California as rice growers plant 222,172 hectares of rice throughout the Sacramento Valley. Growers in the Sacramento Valley were planting nearly 550,000 acres of rice amid a worldwide shortage of grain.

Dalai Lama Envoy to Meet with Chinese Officials

The meeting would be the first between members of the exiled Tibetan government since days before the Tibetan protests erupted in violence. The protests brought the abuses of the Chinese government into the media spotlight at a time when the Chinese government least desired: right before the Olympic torch run. The torch was met by protesters at a handful of the torch's stops raising many questions and compelling some leaders to boycott the opening ceremonies to the summer games.

BBC News Reports:

Two Tibetan envoys are to arrive in Beijing on Saturday for talks on ending the crisis in Tibetan areas of China.

This would be the first contact between the two sides since anti-China protests in Tibet in March turned violent.

The Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government-in-exile have been based in India since fleeing Tibet in 1959.

What will be discussed during the diplomatic talks?

The Tibetan envoys "will convey His Holiness the Dalai Lama's deep concerns about the Chinese authorities' handling of the situation and also provide suggestions to bring peace to the region," a statement from the Dalai Lama's office in Dharamsala, India, said.

Last week, an unnamed Chinese official told state media that Beijing would hold talks with representatives of the Dalai Lama "in coming days".

Talks between the two sides have been held sporadically for several decades.

While opening diplomatic relations between the two groups should always been viewed as a step in the right direction, there are many concerns that the Chinese government is simply engaging in public relations damage control and nothing more.

The anti-China March 10 Lhasa protests have done considerable damage to China's global image. While the Chinese government reports 19 people were killed by rioters on that fateful day in March, the Tibetan government-in-exile says 203 people were killed and some 1,000 hurt in the unrest and crackdown.

A Day In The Life ~ Friday, May 2nd

BARACK OBAMA
-- 12:30 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Munster, IN
-- 5:30 pm ET: Attends rally with voters, Charlotte, NC
-- 7:00 pm ET: Attends North Carolina Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, Raleigh, NC

HILLARY CLINTON
-- 9:00 am ET: Attends event with voters, Kinston, NC
-- 10:15 am ET: Attends event with voters, Hendersonville, NC
-- 3:30 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Greensboro, NC
-- 7:00 pm ET: Attends North Carolina Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, Raleigh, NC
-- 9:00 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Raleigh, NC

BILL CLINTON
-- 4:30 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Greenfield, IN
-- 5:30 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Beech Grove, IN
-- 7:00 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Avon, IN
-- 8:30 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Lebanon, IN

JOHN MCCAIN
-- 12:00 pm ET: Attends town hall meeting with voters, Denver, CO
-- 1:15 pm ET: Holds media availability, Denver, CO

At the White House and Beyond. . .

PRESIDENT BUSH
-- 11:55 am ET: Tours World Wide Technology, St. Louis, MO
-- 12:20 pm ET: Speaks on the economy, Maryland Heights, MO

VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY
-- 7:00 pm ET: Speaks at a reception for Oklahoma Victory 2008, Tulsa, OK

LABOR DEPARTMENT
-- 8:30 am ET: Releases unemployment statistics for April

COMMERCE DEPARTMENT
-- 10:00 am ET: Releases statistics on factory orders for March

The Joe Andrew Switch-a-roo

Former Clintonista, DNC Chair, and current superdelegate Joe Andrew has shifted his allegiance to Sen. Obama. Andrew announced his decision Thursday morning citing the need to bring the nomination process to the end. Andrew was appointed DNC Chair by former President Clinton and was head of the party during the contentious 2000 Bush v. Gore race.

Andrew was the former state party chair in Indiana, but it is unlikely that his Indiana roots will change many voters.

Andrew is just part of the continual flow of superdelegates flocking towards Obama as the Illinois Senior continues to close the gap in super-D's between him and Sen. Clinton.

Sen. Obama netted 3 superdelegates on Wednesday. On the same day, Politico's Amie Parnes and Josephine Hearn report that Capitol Hill insiders have indicated the 80 "undecided" superdelegates in Congress have made up their mind and largely support Obama; the are simply waiting for the right time to come off the bench.

[UPDATE 10:46 am ET] The Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reports that 3 Illinois add-on superdelegates to be announced on May 5th will offer their support to Sen. Obama.

[UPDATE 12:12 pm ET] Texas DNC Member John Patrick endorses Sen. Obama citing his record of standing up for working families and opposing trade deals that fail to protect American workers.

[UPDATE 06:22 pm ET] Sen. Clinton nets four add-on delegates from New York.

Ad Watch: MoveOn.org

On the 5th Anniversary of President Bush's "Mission Accomplished" photo op, MoveOn.org is airing a 30-second spot will air in New Mexico and Iowa for a week.

The ad features Bush's classic soundbite, "Major military operations in Iraq have come to an end," as well as McCain's classic soundbite from the same time, "It’s clear that the end is very much in sight.” The ad also features McCain's "100 year" comment. A narrator closes it out, "and you thought no one could be worse that George Bush."

Gas Tax Holiday: Political Pandering, Not Solutions

The proposed Clinton/McCain gas tax holiday is political pandering at its finest. One of the most pressing issues on voters minds is the high prices of gas. But what will a removal of the gas tax do? McCain and Clinton claim that lifting the 18.4 cent per gallon federal tax would drop the price at the pump by the equivalent 18.4 cents. This translates into a 4% drop which would save summer drivers $2 on every $50 fill-up... IF lifting the tax resulted in a 18.4 cent drop in the price at the pump.

Even libertarian Jerry Taylor, a fellow for the Cato Institute, thinks lifting the tax is a bad idea, calling the proposal, "A holiday from reality." Taylor added, "What would happen more likely than not, gas taxes would be cut, but pump prices wouldn't go down, service stations would just continue charging what they are charging."

Sam Stein of the Huffington Post cuts to the chase in his latest: "Expert Support For Gas Tax Holiday Appears Nonexistent":

I took the task upon myself. I would call experts from all sides of the ideological aisle to get a sense of where the debate stood. In the end, every single analyst I surveyed judged the gas tax holiday proposal to be, roughly speaking, a silly, superfluous, or outright pandering idea.

As I noted yesterday, even economists in Clinton's corner find the proposal objectionable: The NY Times' Paul Krugman calls Clinton's plan "pointless and disappointing."

In his column "Dumb as We Wanna Be," economist Thomas Friedman, who is often criticized for his belief that the free market will naturally solve the most pressing issues facing our environment, notes the Clinon-McCain plan "is so ridiculous, so unworthy of the people aspiring to lead our nation, it takes your breath away."

Even those who are hit the hardest by the soaring prices of fuel do not support the proposal. In an offical release, the American Truckers Association stated the following:

ATA did not ask for this legislation. And we believe it is only a very short term answer that does not do anything to address the longer term issue of rising fuel prices.

So what are the issues with the gas tax? Or, better yet, where do we begin?

The federal gas tax supports the Federal Highway Trust Fund. In turn, the revenue Highway Trust Fund invests in infrastructure i.e. building new roads, bridges, tunnels, highways, maintenance, etc. At a time when the construction industry is already feeling the crunch from the housing crisis, halting investment in infrastructure during peak construction season (northern states typically do all of their road construction in the summer) would further devastate the construction industry and send ripple effects throughout the economy. Sen. Clinton proposes to replace the revenue with a tax on the windfall profits of oil companies. Estimates show that the windfall profits tax would not be able generate the equivalent amount of revenue. Additionally, it is a near guarantee that oil companies would counterbalance the losses from a corporate windfall profits tax by raising the price of gasoline!

Next, the gas tax holiday is an environmentalists nightmare. At a time when the government needs to be providing incentives to change commuter behavior and increase investment in R&D for enviromentally sound transportation, the gas tax holiday does just the opposite.

Lastly, I would point out that, as the name suggests, the removal of the gas tax is only for the "holiday" (specifically, the period of the summer spanning from Memorial Day to Labor Day). While the benefits of a marginal reduction in price would be slight, the strain on consumers would be great when the tax is reimposed in the fall.

The proposed "gas tax holiday" is a ploy to garner votes, not an answer to a serious issue. At least most in the media are reading between the lines.

Thursday's New York Times Editorial calls the gas tax holiday ""an expensive and environmentally unsound policy that would do nothing to help American drivers."

The Washington Post Editorial Board sees the proposed Clinton-McCain gas tax holiday for what it is: political pandering.

His opponents no doubt hope that Mr. Obama's stand will prove to be political suicide. We think it qualifies as political courage.

See Clinton's ad attacking Sen. Obama for neglecting to take action on gas prices HERE.

And Sen. Obama's response ad HERE.

Ad Watch: Clinton

Clinton has a new ad out in North Carolina featuring her latest NC endorser, Gov. Mike Easley.

Hillary the Obliterator

Sen. Clinton has developed a record of paying tough gal in the final days leading up to primaries. Recall the "3 am Red Phone" ad that she ran in the 11th hour of the Ohio and Texas primaries.

In the weekend run-up to the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, Clinton brought the tough talk again; this time, the target was Iran. Sen. Clinton promised she would "obliterate" Iran with nuclear force if they were to launch an attack on Israel.



Sen. Clinton pitches her threats as "deterrence theory." In doing so, she completely neglects the most pressing issue facing our country: Iraq.

One of the Bush Administration's greatest failures in the handling of the Iraq War has been the complete absence of serious diplomatic talks with Iraq's neighbors. Everyone acknowledges Iran's meddling in Iraq, typically coming in the form of providing aid to Shia militias. If Sen. Clinton truly desires to end the war in Iraq, she will need to engage Iran, most in direct talks, a pledge Sen. Obama has made. What effect will Clinton the Obliterater's tough talk have on diplomatic relations with the Iranian government?

An AP report has the answer:

Iran's deputy U.N. ambassador, Mehdi Danesh-Yazdi, called an April 22 statement on ABC by the New York senator, who is seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, "provocative, unwarranted and irresponsible" and "a flagrant violation" of the U.N. Charter.

...

Danesh-Yazdi's letter said Clinton "unwarrantedly and under erroneous and false pretexts threatened to use force against the Islamic Republic of Iran."
The Iranians sent the letter to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and asked that he circulate it to the Security Council.
The council has imposed three rounds of gradually tougher sanctions on Iran for refusing to suspend uranium enrichment. Iran insists it is enriching uranium to produce nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, but the U.S., key European nations and other countries suspect Tehran's real motive is to eventually produce nuclear weapons.
In the letter, Danesh-Yazdi said "Iran is a leading nation in rejecting and opposing all kinds of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons." He added that Iran has repeatedly declared "that nuclear weapons as the most lethal and inhumane weapons have no place in the defense doctrine of the country."
Iran has also campaigned to make the Middle East a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone since 1974, he said.
"Moreover, I wish to reiterate my government's position that the Islamic Republic of Iran has no intention to attack any other nations," Danesh-Yazdi said. "Nonetheless ... Iran would not hesitate to act in self-defense to respond to any attack against the Iranian nation and to take appropriate defensive measures to protect itself" as authorized under the U.N. Charter.