Scoreboard! Scoreboard!

I'm not talking about the chant emanating from the crowd as your Final Four picks blow out No. 15 and No. 16 seeds from small-town USA in the first round of March Madness.


Since before March 4th, the Obama camp has touted their pledged delegate lead, often hinting at (and sometimes directly asserting) that it will be impossible for Clinton to close the gap in pledged delegates. While they were right on the numbers, it is not the best strategy for the Obama camp; no voter likes to be told their vote is worthless. Despite Clinton winning primaries in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island (only losing to Obama in Vermont) on March 4th, Clinton severely failed when it came to closing the gap on Obama's delegate lead. With a decisive victory in second half of the 'Texas Two-Step' (1 parts primary, 1 part caucus), Obama actually ended up netting more delegates in Texas than Clinton.

In the week following March 4th, Obama picked strolled to easy wins in both Wyoming and Mississippi. Despite the combined contests receiving little to no play in the media, Obama erased the gains made by Clinton on March 4th, and some.

Also receiving very little attention in the media, Iowa's county conventions last Saturday, March 15th. With out going into the specifics of Iowa's four stage caucus process (the county convention being Stage 2). Obama was able to pick up an additional 9 delegates, while Clinton lost one (a net gain of 10 for Obama).

SO, where do we stand now? According to ABC News' Delegate Scorecard:

Total Delegates (2025 Needed to Win)
Clinton: 1493
Obama: 1618
Difference: 125

Pledged Delegates
Clinton: 1247
Obama: 1410
Difference: 163

Super Delegates:
Clinton: 246
Obama: 208
Difference: 38


Let's put the numbers into perspective:

If Clinton were to sweep all of the remaining contests with 20 pt. margins (impossible), she would still be trailing by nearly 50 pledged delegates. Despite the fact that Florida has ruled out a re-vote while the prospect of a re-vote in Michigan gets dimmer by the day, lets see what would happen if she were to win every contest by 20 pt. margins, including FL and MI. Clinton would still be trailing by seven pledged delegates.

(You can run through ALL the scenarios yourself using Slate's Delegate Calculator.)

Why is the pledged delegate count so important if superdelegates can vote how they please? Well, lets step into the shoes of the undecided superdelegates. It is fair to assume that the vast majority of the remaining superdelegates are political calculators. They did not have a strong preference early on, and now that they are at the center of attention, they are inclined to travel the path of least resistance; they don't want to be courageous, if you will. So, what would be an easier route for a superdelegate to take: reenforce the 'will of the people' and support whoever holds the pledged delegate lead (i.e. Obama)? Or, overturn the 'will of the people' and support Clinton on the grounds that she is more electable or best prepared for Day One?

So why is Clinton still in it? Her ONLY shot (and a long shot at that) depends on securing the popular vote lead. Then, at least, she will be able to make the argument that the superdelegates would not be overturning the 'will of the people' by casting a vote for Clinton at the convention. Obama currently leads in the popular vote by the relatively significant margin of 700,000 votes.