Sunday, April 27, 2008

Clinton's 'Decisive' Pennsylvania Victory

Let's give Hillary's Pennsylvania victory some context.

Before April 22nd, Clinton needed to win EVERY remaining contest with roughly 65% of the vote (that's a 30 pt margin for all you math gurus out there). Now that she won with a puny 9.2 pt margin, she needs to win the remaining contests by over 70%. Given that she will lose NC (by a large margin, taboot) she needs to win roughly 85% of the vote in ALL other contests (70 pt margin). Okay, yes, there are Super-Ds. But even giving Hillary unrealistic 20 pt margins in every remaining contest, she would need to convince roughly 75% of the super-D's to vote for 2nd place.

Now you have the context looking forward, but lets look at every victory Obama has had since Feb 5th.

Obama's 11 contest sweep between Feb. 5 and March 4:


Louisiana -- 21 pt margin
Nebraska -- 36 pt margin
Washington -- 37 pt margin
Virgin Islands -- 84 pt margin
Maine -- 19 pt margin
Maryland -- 23 pt margin
Virginia -- 19 pt margin
DC -- 51 pt margin
Dems Abroad -- 33 pt margin
Hawaii -- 52 pt margin
Wisconsin -- 17 pt margin

His next three victories:


Vermont -- 20 pt margin
Wyoming -- 23 pt margin
Mississippi -- 24 pt margin


Every win Obama has had since Feb 5th has been by a margin twice as large as Hillary's 'decisive' 9.2% victory.

And the Clintonator trudges on...

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