Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Clinton Wins Pennsylvania

9:06 pm ET: The AP and a host of TV Networks have called Pennsylvania for Clinton.

According to the ABC News count at this moment Clinton has won 54% of the vote and Obama has won 46% of the vote with a mere 7% of precincts reporting.

The margin of victory is likely to shrink for Clinton as the night goes on. Philadelphia, an Obama stronghold, will be one of the last places to report votes.

Also, despite Clinton winning the state, Obama could put up a much better fight for the delegates. Pennsylvania weights the delegate distribution by county according to how the district voted in the 2004 presidential race and the most recent gubernatorial election. According to most accounts, Obama is most likely to win the heavily weighted districts.

Lastly, let's put the night into context.

Where will Clinton be is she ends up with a 10pt margin (the margin will most likely be under 10)?

Even if she won ALL of the remaining contests by a 30pt margin, 65-35, (something she has not done in ANY state) she would still trail Obama in the delegate count (and that is including the current superdelegate count), per Slate's Delegate Calculator.

To quote my coworker: "This whole race is really a sham; a complete PR fabrication, and it could cost the Democrats the White House."

I will provide a more thorough recap of the night along with a look at the road ahead for the Democrats tomorrow.

No comments: