The Indiana Horse Race

A new Indianapolis Star/WTHR poll out today shows a dead-heat in Indiana. The poll has Obama with a statistically insignificant 3pt lead over Sen. Clinton in the Hoosier State.

Sen. Barack Obama holds a narrow lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Indiana, with the outcome of the May 6 primary likely in the hands of a large number of undecided voters, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll.

The poll showed that Obama -- helped in particular by strong backing from black voters -- is leading Clinton 41 percent to 38 percent among likely Democratic primary voters. But given the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, this race is either candidate's to win or lose.

Among Hoosiers who said they would vote in the general election -- a statewide sample of voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points -- Obama beat McCain 49 percent to 41 percent. Clinton broke even with McCain, with both backed by 46 percent of those polled.

And, by 49 percent to 35 percent, Democratic primary voters said Obama is the candidate best able to win in the general election.

The poll found that voters age 18 to 35 favor Obama over Clinton 48 percent to 34 percent, while the oldest voters, age 55 and older, prefer Clinton 43 percent to 32 percent.

Obama is winning urban and suburban voters, 47 percent to 33 percent, while Clinton wins the rural areas by more than 2-to-1: 55 percent to 20 percent.

Clinton is doing well among white women, who back her 48 percent to 29 percent. Among all women, though, Obama is slightly edging her out 41 percent to 40 percent.

Among voters who back Obama, 6 percent said it's because they don't believe the nation is ready for a female president. Among those supporting Clinton, 7 percent said it's because they don't believe the nation is ready for a black president.