Electability, Electability, Electability

With the FL and MI re-vote proposals in the can, Clinton has exhausted virtually all plausible paths to the nomination. The Clinton camp conceded the pledged delegate count a while ago. No FL and MI means no claim to the popular vote. So how does she convince the remaining undecided superdelegates who, in the end, will more than likely follow the path of least resistance (i.e. reaffirming the popular vote and pledged delegate count)?

Clinton's com team captains, Wolfson and Singer, have been pushing the issue of electability on a daily basis for upwards of two weeks now. Their hope is that they can make the case to superdelegates that it is a risky maneuver to send a candidate into the general who can not win key primary states, which they proceed to define as Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia (a bit of a gamble on their part including WV, a state that does not vote until May 13th, where the demographics don't necessarily play into the hands of either candidate and the well respected Sen. Rockefeller has already endorsed Sen. Obama).

However, as Matthew Dowd points out, success in a state's primary contest does not equate to success in November:

Dowd notes that despite the record turnout in this years Democratic nomination process, there is a stark disparity between the 30 million that have voted since January 3rd and the 130 million plus strong electorate that will vote in November.

However, the issues with the primary-general comparison do not end there:

I can recall in the 2000 presidential campaign, George Bush won Iowa in the primary, then lost it in November. He lost New Hampshire by more than 17 points in the primary, but then carried it in the general election providing his electoral margin of victory.

Typically, I am not a fan of Dowd's column's, but he offers a convincing argument in this case.

Nearly every public poll out in last two weeks show Clinton and Obama with equal strength against McCain.

This is the case even after two very bad weeks of press for Obama. My guess is after a few weeks of favorable coverage, Obama will again be at an advantage over Clinton looking towards November.

It gets better...

[The Clinton camp] might recall that as Bill Clinton was headed towards winning the nomination in 1992, his electability in the fall was seriously in doubt. He was more than 15 points behind President Bush in May and June of that year, and in many polls he was in third place behind Ross Perot and President Bush.

The Clinton's can continue to wallow in their own denial, but in the meantime we have seen that the old axiom "any press is good press" is not holding true; the longer this battle is draws out, the worse off the Democratic nominee will be ...not saying any names.