Sunday, March 23, 2008

The Other Race(s): The Senate

Red = Republican incumbant
Maroon = Two Republican incumbants
Pink = Retiring Republican
Blue = Democratic incumbant
Grey = no election

With all eyes on the presidential election, it's easy to lose track of the upcoming battles for seats in the Senate and the House. I will first preview the Senate.

The preponderance of shades of red signifies that 2008 promises to be a good year for the Democrats. The Republicans face the difficult task of defending 23 seats at a time when the popularity of the party has diminished to its lowest point in the last decade. On the other side, the Democrats must defend a mere 12 seats.

Some of the contests promise to be no contest at all. The opposition party has virtually no chance of ousting the Senatorial heavyweights such as Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., or Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss.

Key contests to watch:
  • The battle for retiring Sen. Wayne Allard's seat in Colorado.
  • Former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen's attempt to oust standing Republican Sen. John Sununu in state that prides itself in it's independence and has slowly been sliding more Democratic in recent years.
  • Standing Democratic Sen. Mary Landreiu of Louisianna will face a fierce battle against State Treasurer (and recent Republican convert) John N. Kennedy. The displacement of many solidly Democratic voters in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina won't help Landreiu's chances.
  • With Sen. Pete Domenici's pending retirement due to health concerns (and a little scandal), Republican Reps. Heather Wilson (considered Domenici's protege) and Steve Pearce may have a difficult time defeating the very popular Democratic Rep. Tom Udall.

Other contests worth watching:

  • Alaska
  • Maine
  • Oregon
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi (at least one of the seats)
  • Virginia

Remember, a president is only as good as the legislation they pass and having a majority in the Senate (and the House) will be vitally important to achieving any legislative accomplishments.

Many pundits have hinted at the possibility of the Democrats picking up the super majority (60 seats) in the senate. Given a senate super majority, a likely majority in the house and possibly the presidency, the Democrats would be an unstoppable legislative force (at least until 2010).

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