Violence in Basra ~ The Big Picture

Early this morning, violence broke out in the city of Basra, Iraq's third largest city, tucked away in the southeastern corner of the country. The rather historic city is of special strategic interest as it is considered by many to be the country's southern oil capital. Additionally, the sliver of land is of great geopolitical importance. With Iran and Kuwait as bookends, Basra serves as Iraq's one and only port to the Persian Gulf.

This morning's violence is significant for two reasons, one positive and one negative, respectively:

1. The offensive was largely handled by Iraqi Security Forces
2. Security forces clashed with the Mahdi Army militia in what the militia claims were unprovoked attacks.

The Mahdi Army militia is headed by shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The Bush Administration continues to assert the drop in violence seen in the last six months pays tribute to the success of the surge, but other components are at play. While American servicemen and women continue to provide their best, much of the success of the surge can be attributed to pay offs. US-Iraqi security forces and al-Sadr agreed to a cease-fire back in the fall of 2007. Al-Sadr has recieved large payouts from the American government as incentive to both enter into and maintain the cease fire.

Similarly, in an attempt to quell the violence in the more rural regions of Iraq, the Pentagon has provided large armaments and bundles of cash to the local Sunni tribal leaders in exchange for their continued policing of the more rural areas in Iraq.

As many will recall, the bloodiest months in Iraq between 2006 and 2007 were largely a result of the sectarian violence between opposing Shiite and Sunni factions. While the temporary solution of providing resources to the opposing groups in exchange for cease fire agreements has simmered the violence in recent months, the US is, in effect, holding its finger in the dam. And for the sake of our analogy, this morning's clash with divisions of the Mahdi Army has increased the water pressure.

Al-Sadr has assured the US-Iraqi forces that he will continue to honor the ceasefire, but there remain lingering doubts as to how long this 'duct tape' solution will hold.


Read more on this morning's offensive:

• Per BBC World
• Per Al Jazeera News
• Per the AP
  

FOLLOW UP (11:47 am ET):

No surprise here. In response to the Iraqi security force offensive that took place before the sun was up, incidents of protest and violence have consumed Baghdad and Basra for much of the day. The NY Times has more HERE.